GBP / USD Forecast August 12-16 – The Flickering Pound Continues to Head South

GBP / USD posted sturdy losses for a 3rd straight week, because the pair misplaced 1.1% final week to its lowest stage since January 2017. The approaching week shall be busy, with the deal with information on employment and stories on shopper spending and inflation. Right here is an summary of the highlights of the approaching week and an up to date technical evaluation of the GBP / USD pair.

The providers sector in the UK confirmed a slight enchancment in July. The PMI providers index reached 51.four in July, its highest stage since October. But, studying factors to stagnation. GDP information weren’t spectacular. The month-to-month publication of GDP returned to zero in Might, after Zero.four% a month earlier. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter decreased Zero.2%, after the final studying for the primary quarter confirmed a acquire of Zero.5%. These readings counsel a slowdown within the British financial system.

In america, the non-manufacturing PMI ISM slowed to 53.7 in July, its lowest stage in nearly three years. This means a weaker growth of the service sector. The week has ended with inflation information, which stay at low ranges. The producer worth index remained unchanged at Zero.2%, which is in step with expectations. The essential model decreased by Zero.2%, its first decline of the 12 months.

United States. Inventory markets noticed their worst fall in sooner or later in 2019 on Monday, after China devalued its forex to its lowest stage in 10 years in opposition to the greenback. This choice prompted america to qualify China as a "forex manipulator". China additionally retaliated in opposition to the US pledge to hit Chinese language merchandise with a brand new 10% tariff, as Beijing introduced that it could purchase extra US agricultural merchandise.

GBP / USD each day chart with resistance and help strains. Click on to enlarge:

Employment Information : Tuesday, eight.30am. Wage progress improved to three.four% in June from three.1% a month earlier. The upward pattern is predicted to proceed, with a forecast of three.7%. Unemployment claims jumped 38,000, way over the estimate of 18,900. That is the best stage since 2009. The estimate for July is 42.Zero hundreds. The unemployment charge stays very low and has been set at three.eight% within the final three months. No modifications are deliberate within the subsequent model.
Primary index CB: Tuesday, 1:30 pm. The Convention Board index fell Zero.four% in Might, indicating a weak financial system. Will we see an enchancment within the June launch?
Inflation information : Wednesday, eight.30am. The BoE has set an inflation goal of two.Zero%. In consequence, policymakers are undoubtedly delighted that the buyer worth index (CPI) is at 2.Zero% over the previous two months. The estimate for July is 1.9%. PPI manufacturing was not as sturdy, registering a pointy drop of 1.four% in June. Markets expect higher information in July, with an estimate of Zero.6%.
Retail Gross sales : Thursday, eight.30 am Retail gross sales are the principle indicator of shopper spending. The indicator fell Zero.5% in Might however rebounded in June with a acquire of 1.Zero%. This simply beats the estimate of -Zero.three%. Markets anticipate one other decline, with an estimate of -Zero.three%.

* All instances are GMT format

Technical evaluation of the GBP / USD pair

Technical strains from high to backside:

We begin with a resistance at 1.2420.

1.2330 (talked about final week) is strengthened as a resistance line because the GBP / USD continues to fall.

The spherical determine of 1.22 is then indicated.

The pair broke by way of help at 1.2080 this weekend. This line had protected the symbolic stage 1.20.

The next is 1.1943

The low level in October 2016 was 1.1904. The spherical variety of 1.18 follows.

1.1650 is the final stage of help for the second.

I stay bearish on the GBP / USD

The pound slipped four.Zero% in July and the downward pattern continued till August. With an unpredictable Boris Johnson on the helm, the chance of a troublesome Brexit will increase, and this state of affairs weighs closely on the pound. The escalation of the commerce battle between america and China shouldn’t be excellent news for the pound sterling, as nervous traders flock to secure haven belongings, such because the US greenback.

Extra studying:

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