GBP / USD Forecast August 12-16 – The Flickering Pound Continues to Head South

GBP / USD posted robust losses for a 3rd straight week, because the pair misplaced 1.1% final week to its lowest degree since January 2017. The approaching week will likely be busy, with the concentrate on knowledge on employment and experiences on client spending and inflation. Right here is an summary of the highlights of the approaching week and an up to date technical evaluation of the GBP / USD pair.

The companies sector in the UK confirmed a slight enchancment in July. The PMI companies index reached 51.four in July, its highest degree since October. But, studying factors to stagnation. GDP knowledge weren’t spectacular. The month-to-month publication of GDP returned to zero in Might, after Zero.four% a month earlier. Preliminary GDP for the second quarter decreased Zero.2%, after the final studying for the primary quarter confirmed a acquire of Zero.5%. These readings recommend a slowdown within the British economic system.

In the USA, the non-manufacturing PMI ISM slowed to 53.7 in July, its lowest degree in virtually three years. This means a weaker enlargement of the service sector. The week has ended with inflation knowledge, which stay at low ranges. The producer value index remained unchanged at Zero.2%, which is consistent with expectations. The fundamental model decreased by Zero.2%, its first decline of the yr.

United States. Inventory markets noticed their worst fall in in the future in 2019 on Monday, after China devalued its forex to its lowest degree in 10 years in opposition to the greenback. This choice prompted the USA to qualify China as a "forex manipulator". China additionally retaliated in opposition to the US pledge to hit Chinese language merchandise with a brand new 10% tariff, as Beijing introduced that it will purchase extra US agricultural merchandise.

GBP / USD each day chart with resistance and assist strains. Click on to enlarge:

Employment Knowledge : Tuesday, eight.30am. Wage development improved to three.four% in June from three.1% a month earlier. The upward development is predicted to proceed, with a forecast of three.7%. Unemployment claims jumped 38,000, way over the estimate of 18,900. That is the very best degree since 2009. The estimate for July is 42.Zero hundreds. The unemployment charge stays very low and has been set at three.eight% within the final three months. No modifications are deliberate within the subsequent model.
Principal index CB: Tuesday, 1:30 pm. The Convention Board index fell Zero.four% in Might, indicating a weak economic system. Will we see an enchancment within the June launch?
Inflation knowledge : Wednesday, eight.30am. The BoE has set an inflation goal of two.Zero%. Consequently, policymakers are undoubtedly delighted that the patron value index (CPI) is at 2.Zero% over the previous two months. The estimate for July is 1.9%. PPI manufacturing was not as robust, registering a pointy drop of 1.four% in June. Markets predict higher information in July, with an estimate of Zero.6%.
Retail Gross sales : Thursday, eight.30 am Retail gross sales are the primary indicator of client spending. The indicator fell Zero.5% in Might however rebounded in June with a acquire of 1.Zero%. This simply beats the estimate of -Zero.three%. Markets anticipate one other decline, with an estimate of -Zero.three%.

* All occasions are GMT format

Technical evaluation of the GBP / USD pair

Technical strains from high to backside:

We begin with a resistance at 1.2420.

1.2330 (talked about final week) is strengthened as a resistance line because the GBP / USD continues to fall.

The spherical determine of 1.22 is then indicated.

The pair broke by means of assist at 1.2080 this weekend. This line had protected the symbolic degree 1.20.

The next is 1.1943

The low level in October 2016 was 1.1904. The spherical variety of 1.18 follows.

1.1650 is the final degree of assist for the second.

I stay bearish on the GBP / USD

The pound slipped four.Zero% in July and the downward development continued till August. With an unpredictable Boris Johnson on the helm, the probability of a tricky Brexit will increase, and this state of affairs weighs closely on the pound. The escalation of the commerce warfare between the USA and China just isn’t excellent news for the pound sterling, as nervous buyers flock to secure haven belongings, such because the US greenback.

Extra studying:

Safe commerce!

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